Salem, Oregon – Oregon’s trade-heavy economy absorbed a sharp blow as federal tariff policy shifted repeatedly through 2025. Exports fell, costs climbed and businesses were left trying to plan around rates that could change with little warning.
The price was substantial. A new state analysis estimates that Oregon exports declined 17%, contributing to about $442 million in lost revenue, while importers paid nearly $3 billion in tariffs between March and December 2025.
Governor Tina Kotek released the 2026 Tariff Impact Analysis as President Donald Trump renewed his support for sweeping tariffs affecting 60 trading partners, including a new 50% tariff on targeted Canadian imports. The report was jointly prepared by the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, Oregon Employment Department and Business Oregon.
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“It’s critical that Oregonians know exactly how Trump’s tariff taxes are impacting our economy,” Kotek said.
“As a coastal state with major ports, we move billions of dollars’ worth of seafood, agricultural products, and manufactured goods across the globe. Our ports also support thousands of good-paying jobs for Oregon families.”
Oregon is among the country’s most trade-dependent states, leaving its ports, farms, manufacturers and seafood businesses particularly exposed to international disruptions. State agencies reviewed economic data, regional trends and business surveys to measure the effects of the 2025–2026 tariff environment on companies, workers, public finances and state operations.
The state’s effective tariff rate rose from roughly 2% in March 2025 to about 15% by the fall. Imports initially surged as businesses accelerated purchases before higher rates took effect. Exports, however, dropped sharply.
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According to the analysis, that contraction likely reduced Oregon’s gross domestic product growth by more than one percentage point compared with the national trend. Oregon also experienced steeper slowdowns in employment, income and economic growth than other states with high exposure to international trade.
“Changing tariff rates have upended supply chains, stoked price pressures, and impaired business confidence,” state chief economist Carl Riccadonna said.
Riccadonna added that most Oregon-based businesses felt the economic costs quickly, while anticipated benefits such as returning supply chains to the United States and creating related jobs had not appeared in measurable data.
Kotek said her administration will remain focused on lowering costs for residents and protecting the conditions businesses need to operate and grow as federal trade uncertainty continues.
